News
23 May, 2026
Poll Shock: One Nation Surge Threatens Hume, Whitlam And Riverina
New polling suggests One Nation could emerge as a major force at the next federal election, with projections indicating the party may win nearly 60 seats nationally in a political earthquake for both Labor and the Coalition.
New polling suggests One Nation could emerge as a major force at the next federal election, with projections indicating the party may win nearly 60 seats nationally in a political earthquake for both Labor and the Coalition.
The election is due before May 2028, however the Prime Minister can call the election earlier.
Prior to the Federal Budget, there had been growing speculation Prime Minister Anthony Albanese could go to an early election as soon as the middle of next year in an attempt to capitalise on the Coalition’s poor polling position.
That speculation has now disappeared following the political fallout from the Federal Budget.
The polling, conducted by RedBridge and published in the Australian Financial Review, will send shockwaves through regional electorates across Southern NSW.
Within The Southern Wire readership area, the polling points to major threats for MPs across the political spectrum including Carol Berry in Whitlam, Angus Taylor in Hume, Michael McCormack in Riverina and Kirsty McBain in Eden-Monaro.
The polling suggests former Deputy Prime Minister McCormack is “100%” likely to lose his seat to One Nation with modelling forecasting a 57% result after preferences in favour of One Nation. The Riverina electorate includes communities such as Yass and Crookwell.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor is also projected to be under severe pressure in Hume, with the modelling suggesting a 98 per cent likelihood of the seat falling to One Nation with a projected two-candidate preferred result of 60 per cent.
Meanwhile Labor MP Carol Berry, serving her first term in Whitlam, is also considered vulnerable under the modelling, with One Nation projected to narrowly win the seat with a 60 per cent likelihood.
Labor MP Kirsty McBain is forecast to retain Eden-Monaro despite the broader swing suggested in the polling.
The polling suggests that if an election was held today the outcome would change the nation. Labor could be reduced to minority government with around 70 seats, a loss of 24 seats, while One Nation could surge to 59 seats, an increase of 57 seats.
The Coalition is projected to collapse to just seven seats. Just four years ago the coalition held 77 seats.
According to the modelling, the Greens would not have a member of the House of Representatives.
The only poll that matters however is the one on election day.
Source for the numbers in our article The Australian Financial Review.
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