Rural
2 December, 2025
Beef production to hit record levels in 2025.
Australia is on track to produce a record volume of beef in 2025 as cattle sales rise and carcass weights stay high, according to a new Rabobank report.
Australia is on track to produce a record volume of beef in 2025 as cattle sales rise and carcass weights stay high, according to a new Rabobank report.
The agribusiness bank’s Q4 Global Beef Quarterly forecasts national beef production will hit 2.9 million metric tonnes next year — up 11 per cent on 2024 and the highest on record. Exports are also surging, rising 15 per cent in the first 10 months of 2025 to 1.3 million metric tonnes, easily absorbing the extra supply.
RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the United States remains Australia’s largest export market, taking 29 per cent of all beef exports. Most of this (96 per cent) is grassfed lean trim, but grainfed exports to the US have jumped 20 per cent this year.
Shipments to China have also surged — up 44 per cent so far in 2025 — with grainfed exports to that market lifting 58 per cent. Mr Gidley-Baird said this is likely due to reduced US beef entering China.
Mr Gidley-Baird said seasonal conditions remain the key influence on cattle prices. With no major herd rebuild or liquidation underway, producer sentiment is swinging with the weather.
“After drier conditions through September and early October, cattle prices eased. More favourable late-October rainfall saw prices lift again,” he said. Rabobank expects this pattern to continue into 2026.
While Australia is expanding, global beef production is expected to fall by 0.8 per cent in 2025. New Zealand is forecast to drop 4.7 per cent, while the United States — still the world’s largest producer — is expected to fall almost 500,000 metric tonnes (down four per cent). Canada and the EU27+UK are also contracting.
Overall, global beef supplies are forecast to shrink by around 410,000 tonnes compared with 2024.
On the growth side, Australia leads with its 11 per cent rise, followed by small increases in China (one per cent) and Brazil (0.5 per cent).
Rabobank expects global production to tighten further in 2026, with a projected 3.1 per cent fall driven by drops in Brazil, the US, Mexico and Canada.
The report found northern hemisphere cattle prices remain higher than those in the south, though US and Canadian prices softened slightly in September and October. Southern hemisphere prices generally edged up, reflecting strong demand from northern markets.
Mr Gidley-Baird said recent US trade decisions — including changes to tariffs affecting Argentina and Brazil — will create extra competition for Australian beef, but strong American demand should keep exports high.
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